Getting a bit along in life, you are probably thinking about your retirement a lot. Either in a panic because you “don't have enough” or you are relishing getting out the rat race as soon as possible.
Either way, it is probably on your mind a lot.
So lets say you have 15 to 30 years to actual retirement. So you are talking about retiring in the time frame 2035 to 2050. About the time period of a typical house mortgage.
After retirement, let say you are healthy, and live another 30 years. So your might live until 2065 to 2080. If healthcare keeps improving as it does, you might make 2100, which just sounds marvelous. Or course, if you are younger today, you are very likely to live until then.
To put things in a bit of perspective, practically all of the technologies we use today did not exist before 1900. The financial system of today only really took off after the Second World War.
Your retirement depends on the financial and technology systems of today working efficiently and continue working with appropriate financial returns and technological innovations.
This is what all of us are counting on for a good life. Essentially the next hundred years being more of the same goodness.
Unfortunately, the chance of this happening is zero.
Zero.
The reason is that the period 1900 to 2100 will be the most tragic time for humanity. It will be two hundred years of extreme highs and lows.
Our carbon driven lifestyle essentially pumped massive amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere since 1900. We are talking 280 parts per million (PPM) to over 410 PPM CO2 in 2019.
We already know from geological studies that only a 100 PPM change in CO2 concentrations results in a sea-level change of over 70 feet. We also know that there has been massive extinction events related to CO2 concentrations. We also know that ice levels fluctuate dramatically based on C02 measures.
Typically the fluctuations in sea level normally take place over tens of thousands of years. This is simply because it takes a long time for all the ice to melt with small increases of C02.
What is remarkable is that since 1900, our addiction to fossil fuels has massively increased C02 levels at a rate that the planet has not seen in hundreds of millions of years.
And, so essentially, in the next hundred years, a huge amount of the ice will melt. There is not even a debate about it anymore. This is going to happen. It is happening. You can read about it, if you don't believe me.
In 2100 we are truly facing an unprecedented situation. Will we be prepared for this massive change in sea level?
So, what does this all mean?
Well, your precious retirement is totally screwed no matter what humanity does. It sounds pretty petty to put it in those personal terms, but that is probably the best way to get your attention. Because who normally cares about all of this stuff anyways?
You should. Because it is going to be very very bad.
Obviously a lot of people will need to be relocated either because of the sea level rising or extreme temperatures making parts of the globe uninhabitable.
We are talking about a massive number of climate refugees. Only in the US, it is expected to be 13 million people.
If you think you living on a mountain is going to solve your problems, think again. First of all, the mountain is going to be very full of people that have nothing. The mountain is going to be a very very depressing place. Your kids are going to hate you for what you did – not paying attention and leaving the world in a state that is just unimaginable.
Good luck finding a new mortgage or insurance. Trillions of real-estate and infrastructure will be destroyed, and a lot of people will suddenly be poor. Large parts of the planet will be empty. Ecosystems will collapse, animals will be dying, people will be starving.
This is not a theoretical conversation any more. If you live in Miami, your mortgage is already rated on your house elevation above sea-level. And typically we are talking about a few feet here, sometimes less that a foot having incredible implications on infrastructure. Because Miami is already sinking and flooding today.
All these changes coming (while you are waiting for your retirement) are hard to imagine. It is very hard to do, and easy to dismiss. Because the sun is still shining today, and you can't do much about it, right?
The situation is dire, and I am praying that a new type of person, a new type of entrepreneur will be forged in all of this chaos. A new entrepreneur, driven not by money, but by changing the behavior of people and humanity.
Because we really need those people right now to head off the worst that is to come.
I am hopeful that the new entrepreneur will make a difference, even if it is just to reduce the immense suffering that is yet to come.
It sounds a bit crazy I know, but a few people can actually make a big difference.
The most remarkable in recent times is an autistic 16-year old girl, who decided to make a stand. By simply striking from school on Fridays.
I am talking about Greta Thunberg who is inspiring school children all over the world, and whose climate crusade is now forcing the adults to pay attention. It is really a sad day for humanity if this is the most effective way for us to pay attention. It is a gut punch listening to her explaining how humanity is ignoring the most important issue of our times.
There will be more Gretas, more entrepreneurs standing up to be counted. They will think differently. They will think bigger. And we will be inspired by them. Because there is really no other choice for humanity. We need entrepreneurs that can change the behavior of humanity for the better.
If you are a new entrepreneur, now is your time to stand up. Even if it is just striking from work on Fridays.
Behavior change starts small.
With you.